July 31, 2010

July 31, 2010 SP-500 Market Trend Commentary

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Status: Market Bullish - Bonds or Sector Positions

The general market trading filter I use (SP-500 53 day CCI) is at 51 indicating Market Up. My multiple composite SP-500 indicators on the daily chart are also all "in the green" indicating a bullish stance.  We are at a significant level of resistance at about 1120 based on the June and January Highs. The coming weeks are important to see if we break through to the upside.


Rankings: The Rankings still show bond funds ranked on top. As was the case last week other market secotrs have not "proven" themselves yet to displace bond funds. However, you can see sectors such as Telecom, Utilities, Europe, Latin America, etc. on the rise in the rankings. Ranking scores are color coded to indicate positive ranking scores (rate of change / volatility) in green, and negative ranking scores in red. Overall the list is sorted by overall rank but the score that makes up the rank can be positive or negative depending on the recent rate of change. The full list of the funds that are ranked can be found under the Funds tab. Current Rankings of the Funds can be found under the Rankings tab.

Actions: No changes to the model portfolios. Monthly dividends for these bond fund holdings should be announced this week.


Performance:

Vanguard Model Portfolio: 0.62%  [SPY: 3.0%]


Schwab Model Portfolio: 0.29%  [SPY: 2.8%]


Disclosure: Positions in SWGSX, SWLBX, SWBDX.

What others are saying (all free sites): Overall Neutral/Mixed

Barchart: Hold


Bulkowski: Neutral (shorter term signal CPI=54.5%)


Buy-Don't Hold: Sell Signal


MTR Investors Market Timing Model: Market Up


My Trading System: Up Trend


Stock TA (SPY): Neutral

Stock Trends: Strong Bearish


Winning Investing: Condition Red - Use Caution


Wishing Wealth: Up Trend

dshort.com: Invested (Note - monthly 10-EMA signal)

Click on Charts to Enlarge

SP-500 Daily Chart  July 31, 2010
SP-500 Daily Chart July 31, 2010

SP-500 Daily Guppy Chart  July 31, 2010
SP-500 Daily Guppy Chart July 31, 2010

July 31, 2010 Weekly Fidelity, Schwab, Vanguard Fund Rankings

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As you can see from the weekly Top 15 Rankings, government bond funds still are on top.  However, some sectors are moving up the ranking and short funds are no longer listed in the top 15. Green coloring indicates positive rate of change over the past period, and red indicates negative rate of change. For the full list of funds that are ranked see our Funds listing.

Selected Fidelity Funds
Selected Fidelity Fund Rankings  July 31, 2010
Selected Fidelity Fund Rankings July 31, 2010
Selected Schwab & Profunds Funds

Selected Schwab/Profunds Fund Rankings  July 31, 2010
Selected Schwab/Profunds Fund Rankings July 31, 2010
Selected Vanguard Funds
Selected Vanguard Fund Rankings  July 31, 2010
Selected Vanguard Fund Rankings July 31, 2010