Weekly SP-500 Trend Commentary – 20110903

*** Status: Market Bearish – Bond Funds ***

The SP-500 Index remains in a downtrend, and in the past few days failed to move through recent November resistance at ~1227. The general market trading filter I use (SP-500 53 day CCI) is at -73 indicating Market Down which is down from -106 last week. My multiple composite SP-500 indicators on the daily chart are Bearish with the Blau Ergodic Composite Indicator and the MACD composite indicating a down trend. The SP-500 index is down ~16.4% from the recent May high of 1370. The CCI(53) indicator for all the indices on the right of this page are bearish with only the IEF bond fund as bullish.

The Guppy Plot for the SP-500 is  Bearish, with the Fast moving averages under the Slow moving averages. The average slopes of the Fast Moving Averages remain did turn positive, but the average of the Slow Moving Averages remains negative. The ADX components are bearish and the Stoch has moved up.

We’ll see what the next week brings. We don't try to forecast the market here, rather we just monitor the current conditions and react accordingly. I hope you find this blog helpful. If you do, why not leave a comment.

Rankings:

This week's Rankings continue to have Bond Funds and Short Funds at the top.  Ranking scores are color coded to indicate positive ranking scores (rate of change / volatility) in green, and negative ranking scores in red. Overall the list is sorted by overall rank but the score that makes up the rank can be positive or negative depending on the recent rate of change. The full list of the funds that are ranked can be found under the Funds tab. Current Rankings of the Funds can be found under the Rankings tab.

What Others are Saying (all free sites): Overall Mixed

AAII Sentiment:  39% Bullish / 29% Neutral / 32% Bearish

Barchart: 67% Sell (last week 80% Sell)

Bulkowski: Bearish (CPI= 0% - last week 1%)

Buy-Don't Hold: Buy (3)

Consensus Traders: 62% Bullish / 21% Neutral / 17% Bearish (SPY)

MTR Investors Market Timing Model: Market Up

MyPlanIQ Trend Score: 0.2% (SPY -7.59% last week) 

10 DMA New High - New Low Ratio: Bearish (see Chris Perruna for explanation)

Pattern Trapper: Neutral (SPY)

Stock TA (SPY): Bearish

Stock Trends: Bearish

Wishing Wealth: Down Trend

dshort.com: Cash (Note - monthly SP-500 10-EMA signal)

Click on Charts to Enlarge

SP-500 Daily Chart for September 3, 2011

SP-500 Daily Guppy Chart for September 3, 2011

Fidelity, Vanguard, Schwab, and Profunds Fund Rankings - 20110903

The Market continues to be in a downtrend which is shown by Bond Funds and Short Funds still at the top of the Rankings. . Remember that even though a Fund is ranked in the Top 15, if it is colored red it is in a downtrend. Green coloring indicates positive rate of change over the past period, and red indicates negative rate of change. For the full list of funds that are ranked see our Funds listing.

Selected Fidelity Funds Rankings

Selected Fidelity Funds Rankings for September 3, 2011

Selected Vanguard ETF Rankings

Selected Vanguard ETF Rankings for September 3, 2011

Selected Schwab & Profunds Funds Rankings

Selected Schwab & Profunds Funds Rankings for September 3, 2011

Retirement Strategy Update 20110902

Same story for the last several weeks - invested in bond funds and with rise in Gold, DBC is now in the Invested category by the three different indicators.


One thing I've focused on is developing a strategy for my retirement funds. Ever since pulling my funds out of the market in late 2008, like many others I hesitatedt to reinvest - at least not without a plan. Two books that influenced my plans are The Ivy Portfolio and How a Second Grader Beats Wall Street. In general both of these books profess the use of broad index funds versus individual stock picking. The Ivy Portfolio adds a mechanism for market timing, such as the 10 month moving average and adjusting monthly. Dshort provides updates on The Ivy Portfolio strategy each month.

Below is a summary of retirement funds considered by mybestfunds.com with three different market timing strategies indicated: the average slope of the Guppy Slow moving averages, the CCI(53), and the 200 day simple moving average. In a future post, I'll provide backtesting results for each of these strategies. I plan on providing a weekly update on these funds.

Retirement Strategy Update for September 2, 2011

We have The Power

Photo by MikeBehnken

Even though our power was scheduled to be restored on Tuesday, the power returned late yesterday.  Yea!! Time to get off the low wattage and reduced internet diet and get back to work!

Still Without Power

Sorry but here in the Northeast, mybestfunds is still without power, and at the moment I only have a limited internet connection. At this point power may not be restored until sometime next week. I may try and post sometime over the Labor Day weekend, but will need to find local hotspot. Sorry for any inconvenience. 


Meanwhile we've had a bit of an up move in the market over the last three days, but I wouldn't say we are in a confirmed up trend just yet.


All the best!

Update will be delayed

Due to effect of hurricane on East Coast the update will be delayed.  Right now we are without power and not sure when it will be restored.  Hope all is well with everyone!