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Weekly SP-500 Trend Commentary - 20111112

*** Status: Market Bullish – Sector/Index Funds ***

The SP-500 had yet another volatile week dropping again down to previous resistance at ~1225 The general market trading filter I use (SP-500 53 day CCI) is at +107 indicating Market Up which is slightly up from +117 last week. My multiple composite SP-500 indicators on the daily chart are both Bullish with the Blau Ergodic Composite Indicator bullish and the MACD composite indicating an up trend. The SP-500 index is down ~8.3% from the recent May high of 1370. The CCI(53) indicator for all the indices on the right of this page are now all bullish except IEF which also indicates a move to stocks.

The Guppy Plot for the SP-500 Index is bullish, with the Fast moving averages above the Slow Moving Averages, and the Slow Moving averages in transition. The average slope of the Fast Moving Averages dropped to negative, and my main indicator, the average slope of the Slow Moving Averages remains positive, but has dropped some. The ADX components are bearly bullish, and the Stoch has turned down after turning up earlier in the week.

We’ll see what the next week brings. We don't try to forecast the market here, rather we just monitor the current conditions and react accordingly. I hope you find this blog helpful. If you do, why not leave a comment.

Rankings:

This week's Rankings continue have transitioned to have Sector and Index Funds at the top.  Ranking scores are color coded to indicate positive ranking scores (rate of change / volatility) in green, and negative ranking scores in red. Overall the list is sorted by overall rank but the score that makes up the rank can be positive or negative depending on the recent rate of change. The full list of the funds that are ranked can be found under the Funds tab. Current Rankings of the Funds can be found under the Rankings tab.

What Others are Saying (all free sites): Overall Bullish

AAII Sentiment:  45% Bullish / 31% Neutral / 25% Bearish

Investors Intelligence: 44% Bullish / 35% Bearish

Barchart: 56% Buy (last week 48% Buy)

Bulkowski: Buy (CPI= 98% - last week 50%)

Buy-Don't Hold: Buy (3)

Consensus Traders: 44% Bullish / 23% Neutral / 34% Bearish (SPY)

MTR Investors Market Timing Model: Market Up

MyPlanIQ Trend Score: +2.38% (SPY +1.35% last week) 

10 DMA New High - New Low Ratio: Bullish (see Chris Perruna for explanation)

Pattern Trapper: Bullish (SPY)

Stock TA (SPY): Bullish

Stock Trends: Weak Bearish

TimelySetup: Short 

Wishing Wealth: Down Trend (GMI-2)

TheWizard: Very Bullish (SP-500 Long Term Signal)

dshort.com: Invested (Note - monthly SP-500 10-EMA signal)

Click on Charts to Enlarge

SP-500 Daily Chart for November 12, 2011

SP-500 Daily Guppy Chart for November 12, 2011

Fidelity, Vanguard, Schwab, and Profunds Fund Rankings - 20111112

Sector funds remain at the top of the Rankings. Remember that even though a Fund is ranked in the Top 15, if it is colored red it is in a downtrend. Green coloring indicates positive rate of change over the past period, and red indicates negative rate of change. For the full list of funds that are ranked see our Funds listing.

Selected Fidelity Funds Rankings

Selected Fidelity Funds Rankings for November 12, 2011

Selected Vanguard ETF Rankings

Selected Vanguard ETF Rankings for November 12, 2011

Selected Schwab & Profunds Funds Rankings

Selected Schwab & Profunds Funds Rankings for November 12, 2011

Retirement Strategy Update 20111112

Another very volatile week in the Market. Some minor changes this week to the indicators.

One thing I've focused on is developing a strategy for my retirement funds. Ever since pulling my funds out of the market in late 2008, like many others I hesitatedt to reinvest - at least not without a plan. Two books that influenced my plans are The Ivy Portfolio and How a Second Grader Beats Wall Street. In general both of these books profess the use of broad index funds versus individual stock picking. The Ivy Portfolio adds a mechanism for market timing, such as the 10 month moving average and adjusting monthly. Dshort provides updates on The Ivy Portfolio strategy each month.

Below is a summary of retirement funds considered by mybestfunds.com with three different market timing strategies indicated: the average slope of the Guppy Slow moving averages, the CCI(53), and the 200 day simple moving average. In a future post, I'll provide backtesting results for each of these strategies. I plan on providing a weekly update on these funds.

Retirement Strategy Update for November 12, 2011